The Savior Market Conviction Compass™ currently reads 50.2/100, signaling a Neutral / Hold posture.
The dashboard highlights changing market internals across breadth, trend, credit, liquidity, leverage, sentiment, and valuation.
Rules-Based Market Conviction Framework
Tracking breadth, trend, credit, liquidity, leverage, sentiment, and valuation.
1. What Changed
The Compass currently reads 50.2/100, compared with the last published reading of 42.3/100.
The Compass improved meaningfully versus the last published reading, but this should not be interpreted as an all-clear signal.
The improvement reflects better surface support from credit and trend conditions, while the caution reflects weaker breadth, negative new-high/new-low readings, elevated valuation, and market extension above long-term trend.
In plain English: the market looks healthier in some areas than it did at the prior reading, but the rally still deserves discipline because several internal and structural risks remain.
2. What Improved
- Corporate credit spreads remain relatively calm, meaning bond markets are not yet signaling broad financial stress.
3. What Deteriorated or Still Deserves Caution
- More stocks are quietly breaking down than making new highs beneath the surface of the indexes.
- The market remains extended above its long-term trend, which historically can increase pullback risk.
- The Buffett Indicator remains near historically elevated levels, suggesting market value is high relative to the size of the economy.
4. Early-Warning Flags
The following public-facing caution flags are currently active. These are not predictions; they are reminders that risk/reward can shift before headlines fully reflect it.
- SPX extended above 250DMA
- New highs minus new lows negative
- Buffett Indicator extremely elevated
- CAPE extremely elevated
Strongest Areas of the Dashboard
| Dashboard Area | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Credit & Funding | Supportive. Credit and funding conditions are not yet confirming a broad stress event. |
| Macro / Rates / Policy | Manageable. Rates and policy remain important, but they are not currently the primary source of pressure. |
| Volatility / Dealer / Options | Calm on the surface. Volatility remains contained, though that can change quickly when positioning is crowded. |
Weakest Areas of the Dashboard
| Dashboard Area | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Valuation / Fundamentals | Pressure point. Long-term valuation leaves less room for disappointment. |
| Breadth & Structure | Fragile. Participation beneath the surface is not as strong as the headline indexes suggest. |
| Sentiment & Hedging | Mixed. Sentiment and positioning argue against complacency. |
| Leverage / Fragility | Pressure point. Elevated leverage can amplify downside if volatility or credit stress appears. |
Key Public Indicator Readings
These selected readings help explain the current market setup. The public version shows directional context and interpretation, not the full proprietary scoring methodology.
| Indicator | Latest Reading | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| SPX % Above 50DMA | 44.9102 | Shows whether broad participation is strengthening or narrowing beneath the index. |
| SPX % Above 200DMA | 52.6946 | Helps measure longer-term participation and whether the market has broad support. |
| NDX % Above 50DMA | 52.4752 | Tracks participation within large-cap growth and technology leadership. |
| NYSE A/D Trend Score | 28.0561 | Measures whether more stocks are advancing or declining beneath the surface. |
| New Highs – New Lows | -21.0 | A key internal health check. Negative readings can show deterioration hidden by index strength. |
| SPX Distance to 250DMA % | 12.0834 | Shows how extended the market is relative to long-term trend support. |
| VIX | 18.43 | Reflects expected volatility. Calm readings can be supportive but can also mask complacency. |
| High Yield OAS | 2.76 | Credit stress gauge. Tight spreads suggest corporate credit is not yet confirming broad stress. |
| Investment Grade OAS | 0.76 | Investment-grade credit stress gauge. Wider spreads would signal rising caution. |
| Buffett Indicator % | 229.5 | Broad market valuation gauge comparing equity market value to the size of the economy. |
| CAPE | 40.11 | Long-term valuation measure. Elevated readings reduce the market’s margin for error. |
Market Insight of the Week
New highs versus new lows can reveal internal market health that headline indexes may hide.
Market Tip: Watch what investors are doing beneath the surface, not just what the index is doing at the close.
“The four most dangerous words in investing are: this time it’s different.”
— Sir John Templeton
How Investors Should Think About This
The goal of the Compass is not prediction. It is disciplined risk awareness.
A higher reading means market conviction has improved. It does not mean risk has disappeared. A lower reading means market conviction has weakened. It does not mean downside is guaranteed.
The value is in the change: whether participation is broadening or narrowing, whether credit is confirming or rejecting stress, and whether valuation and leverage leave room for error.
View the live Compass Dashboard here:
https://www.saviorwealth.com/compass-dashboard/
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Important Disclosures
This material is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.