The Savior Market Conviction Compass™ currently reads 64.1/100, signaling a Constructive / Accumulate posture.
The dashboard highlights changing market internals across breadth, trend, credit, liquidity, leverage, sentiment, and valuation.
Rules-Based Market Conviction Framework
Tracking breadth, trend, credit, liquidity, leverage, sentiment, and valuation.
1. What Changed
The Compass currently reads 64.1/100, compared with the last published reading of 56.0/100.
The Compass improved meaningfully versus the last published reading, but this should not be interpreted as an all-clear signal.
The improvement reflects better surface support from credit and trend conditions, while the caution reflects weaker breadth,
negative new-high/new-low readings, elevated valuation, and market extension above long-term trend.
In plain English: the market looks healthier in some areas than it did at the prior reading, but the rally still deserves discipline
because several internal and structural risks remain.
2. What Improved
- Volatility remains relatively subdued, suggesting investors are not yet aggressively hedging downside risk.
- Corporate credit spreads remain relatively calm, meaning bond markets are not yet signaling broad financial stress.
3. What Deteriorated or Still Deserves Caution
- Margin debt remains elevated, which can amplify downside volatility during periods of market stress.
- The Buffett Indicator remains near historically elevated levels, suggesting market value is high relative to the size of the economy.
- Price-to-sales ratios remain historically stretched, leaving less room for disappointment.
4. Early-Warning Flags
The following public-facing caution flags are currently active. These are not predictions; they are reminders that risk/reward can shift before headlines fully reflect it.
- SPX extended above 250DMA
- Buffett Indicator extremely elevated
- CAPE extremely elevated
Strongest Areas of the Dashboard
| Dashboard Area | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Credit & Funding | Supportive. Credit and funding conditions are not yet confirming a broad stress event. |
| Volatility / Dealer / Options | Calm on the surface. Volatility remains contained, though that can change quickly when positioning is crowded. |
| Price Trend & Technicals | Mixed. Trend remains positive, but parts of the market look extended. |
Weakest Areas of the Dashboard
| Dashboard Area | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Valuation / Fundamentals | Pressure point. Long-term valuation leaves less room for disappointment. |
| Leverage / Fragility | Pressure point. Elevated leverage can amplify downside if volatility or credit stress appears. |
| Sentiment & Hedging | Mixed. Sentiment and positioning argue against complacency. |
| Macro / Rates / Policy | Manageable. Rates and policy remain important, but they are not currently the primary source of pressure. |
Key Public Indicator Readings
These selected readings help explain the current market setup. The public version shows directional context and interpretation, not the full proprietary scoring methodology.
| Indicator | Latest Reading | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| SPX % Above 50DMA | 61.2 | Shows whether broad participation is strengthening or narrowing beneath the index. |
| SPX % Above 200DMA | 61.8 | Helps measure longer-term participation and whether the market has broad support. |
| NDX % Above 50DMA | 51.4851 | Tracks participation within large-cap growth and technology leadership. |
| NYSE A/D Trend Score | 79.2 | Measures whether more stocks are advancing or declining beneath the surface. |
| New Highs – New Lows | 39.0 | A key internal health check. Negative readings can show deterioration hidden by index strength. |
| SPX Distance to 250DMA % | 10.4532 | Shows how extended the market is relative to long-term trend support. |
| VIX | 17.68 | Reflects expected volatility. Calm readings can be supportive but can also mask complacency. |
| High Yield OAS | 2.78 | Credit stress gauge. Tight spreads suggest corporate credit is not yet confirming broad stress. |
| Investment Grade OAS | 0.75 | Investment-grade credit stress gauge. Wider spreads would signal rising caution. |
| Buffett Indicator % | 229.7 | Broad market valuation gauge comparing equity market value to the size of the economy. |
| CAPE | 41.57 | Long-term valuation measure. Elevated readings reduce the market’s margin for error. |
Market Insight of the Week
A market index can rise even while participation underneath the surface weakens.
Market Tip: The goal is not to predict every move. The goal is to avoid being surprised by obvious fragility.
“Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.”
— Howard Marks
How Investors Should Think About This
The goal of the Compass is not prediction. It is disciplined risk awareness.
A higher reading means market conviction has improved. It does not mean risk has disappeared. A lower reading means market conviction has weakened.
It does not mean downside is guaranteed.
The value is in the change: whether participation is broadening or narrowing, whether credit is confirming or rejecting stress,
and whether valuation and leverage leave room for error.
View the live Compass Dashboard here:
https://www.saviorwealth.com/compass-dashboard/
Summary
The Savior Market Conviction Compass™ is a rules-based market conviction framework from Savior Wealth.
The current public reading is 64.1/100, signaling a
Constructive / Accumulate posture.
The framework reviews breadth, trend, credit and funding conditions, volatility, valuation,
leverage, sentiment, and macro/rates policy signals.
Higher readings indicate stronger conviction toward risk assets. Lower readings indicate reduced conviction
and a greater emphasis on discipline, selectivity, and risk management.
Generated: 2026-06-13
Research Context and Data Sources
The Compass uses a rules-based process that incorporates market data, macro data, valuation data,
credit conditions, volatility, and market internals.
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Important Disclosures
This material is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered individualized
investment advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a guarantee of future results.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Market indicators are imperfect, may change quickly, and should be evaluated within the context of an investor’s
objectives, time horizon, liquidity needs, risk tolerance, and overall financial plan.
Savior Wealth does not provide tax or legal advice. Please consult your tax, legal, or other professional advisor
regarding your specific circumstances.
Additional disclosures are available here:
https://www.saviorwealth.com/important-disclosures/