The Savior Market Conviction Compass currently reads 42.3/100, signaling a Cautious / Reduce Risk posture.
The dashboard highlights weakening market internals beneath a market that remains supported by relatively calm credit and funding conditions.
1. What Changed
The Savior Market Conviction Compass™ has shifted further into a Cautious / Reduce Risk regime, with the current score at
42.3/100. This is not a reaction to one headline or one trading day. It reflects a deterioration in internal market conditions.
The clearest message is that the market still has support from credit and funding conditions, but the internal quality of the advance has weakened.
That combination calls for discipline, not panic.
2. Why It Matters
Markets rarely weaken all at once. Often, the first signs appear beneath the surface: narrowing breadth, stretched trend conditions,
crowded positioning, and less favorable sentiment.
That is exactly the type of environment the Compass is built to monitor. It is designed to help identify when market conviction is improving or deteriorating before volatility and credit stress fully confirm the move.
3. What We Are Watching Next
- Breadth: Does participation stabilize, or does weakness broaden?
- Credit: Do spreads remain contained, or begin to confirm stress?
- Volatility: Does calm persist, or does volatility begin to reprice risk?
- Positioning: Does crowded exposure unwind?
- Leadership: Does market leadership broaden, or remain concentrated?
The model registered 4 early-warning topping flags, applying a 10-point caution adjustment.
Those flags currently include:
NDX breadth below 50%
New highs minus new lows is negative
Equity skew is elevated
CTA positioning is crowded long.
Strongest Areas of the Dashboard
| Dashboard Area | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Credit & Funding | Supportive. Credit and funding conditions are not yet confirming a broad stress event. |
| Macro / Rates / Policy | Mixed but manageable. Rates and policy are not currently the primary source of pressure. |
| Volatility / Dealer / Options | Calm on the surface. Volatility remains contained, but that can change quickly when positioning is crowded. |
Weakest Areas of the Dashboard
| Dashboard Area | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Valuation / Fundamentals | Pressure point. Long-term valuation leaves less room for disappointment. |
| Leverage / Fragility | Pressure point. Elevated leverage can amplify downside if volatility or credit stress appears. |
| Price Trend & Technicals | Weakening. Momentum and trend confirmation are less reliable than they were. |
| Sentiment & Hedging | Less favorable. Positioning and hedging data argue against complacency. |
Key Indicators Pressuring the Compass
The public version shows the latest readings and context, not the proprietary scoring formula.
| Area | Indicator | Latest / Current Value | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation / Fundamentals | Buffett Indicator % | 229.50 | Market value remains high relative to the size of the economy. |
| Valuation / Fundamentals | CAPE | 40.11 | Long-term valuation remains elevated. |
| Valuation / Fundamentals | S&P 500 P/S | 3.427 | Sales multiples remain stretched. |
| Price Trend & Technicals | QQQ RSI 14D | 84.17 | Nasdaq momentum has been extended. |
| Sentiment & Hedging | CTA Positioning Score | 25.0 | Trend-following exposure appears crowded. |
| Sentiment & Hedging | 25D Skew | 148.7 | Options markets are pricing meaningful downside protection demand. |
| Leverage / Fragility | Total Leverage % GDP | 31.7 | Combined leverage remains high relative to GDP. |
| Leverage / Fragility | Total Leverage $T | 9.364 | Aggregate leverage remains elevated. |
Current Takeaway
This is not a “sell everything” message and it is not a prediction. It is a disciplined warning that the market is offering less confirmation than it was when participation was broader and momentum was cleaner.
For do-it-yourself investors, the subscriber version provides a fuller weekly dashboard. For qualified households that want direct advisory guidance rather than a DIY signal, the Private Discovery Session is the next step.
Research Context and Data Sources
- CBOE Volatility Index
- Federal Reserve Economic Data
- FINRA Margin Statistics
- CFTC Commitments of Traders
- CNN Fear & Greed Index
Two Ways to Use the Compass
1. Subscribe to the Compass
For investors, advisors, and market observers who want a disciplined weekly signal without becoming a full advisory client.
The subscriber version includes fuller dashboard detail, scenario framing, and ongoing market interpretation.
2. Apply for a Private Discovery Session
For qualified households and business owners who do not want to manage this alone and are interested in potentially becoming a Savior Wealth client.
This is generally most appropriate for families with $1 million or more in investable assets, and especially for those with $2.5 million or more seeking direct CIO-level guidance.
Important Disclosures
This material is for educational and informational purposes only. It should not be construed as personalized investment advice,
a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a guarantee of future results. Market indicators are imperfect and may change quickly.
Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal.